On 17 May 2016 the BBC ran an article about self driving trucks. The start-up company Otto, the brain child of former Google, Tesla, and Apple employees, is coming out with kits to retrofit existing trucks with radar, cameras, other sensors and all the controls needed to convert them into self-driving vehicles. The retrofit is much cheaper than building all new vehicles. These trucks will begin self-driving strictly on highways. Navigating highways, where there are no intersections, traffic lights or stop signs is much easier for computerized vehicles than navigating city streets. The company is betting that self-driving truck will be a reality before self-driving cars.
REALITY
Semi-driverless trucks are already a reality. Mercedes-Benz has been operating driverless convoys in Germany. One truck with a driver leads the way while other driverless trucks follow the leader. Mercedes recently was given the first driverless truck license in Nevada.
The BBC article ends with a quote from Lior Ron, one of Otto’s cofounders, “We want to get the technology to the point where it’s safe to let the driver rest and sleep in his cabin and we can drive for him, exit to exit.” Sounds nice, but it is just not accurate. Self-driving vehicles do not become economically feasible unless the salary paid to the driver is eliminated.
THE PROBLEM
News of new developments and inroads for driverless vehicles are in the media almost every week, this technology is coming fast. Most of the articles have omitted talking about one important factor, jobs.
The U.S. Department of Labor’s website shows there were 1,797,700 “heavy and tractor trailer truck drivers” working in 2014. Job growth is expected to be 5% per year. These are relatively good paying jobs that do not require a college degree, these jobs will be the first to go. They will be followed by local haul truck drivers and all people haul drivers, Cabs, Uber, etc.
We are talking about millions and millions of jobs in the U.S. that will be eliminated in the about 10 years.
SOLUTIONS
We have to make higher education more affordable in this country. Technology is quickly going to replace many good paying jobs that do not require college degrees. If you are presently driving a truck or cab and do not plan to retire in the next ten years, start going to school. Going to school part-time for ten years can easily put you in a much more employable place than you are today. If you are soon graduating high school and plan to make a living driving anything, rethink your plans. You will be out of work with no prospects in your field before you are thirty years old. If you are presently in school, do not even think of dropping out.
The pace of new technology grows faster every day. While many jobs will be eliminated by new technology, many new fields of employment will be created. Most of the new fields will require post high school education.
Ed and Patsy Bruce need to change the lyrics of their song to “Mama don’t let your babies grow up to be truckers, they’ll be out of a job and left high and dry…..” or something like that.
